The math behind NCW’s future presents leaders with serious choices

WENATCHEE — If you thought the region’s growth was racing ahead, Dr. Patrick Jones has news for you: the numbers don’t bear it out.

Jones, executive director of Eastern Washington University’s Institute for Public Policy and Economic Analysis, brought a no-nonsense demographic snapshot to the September 9 Tri-Commission meeting of Chelan County, the PUD, and the Regional Port Authority. Drawing on state forecasts and federal data, Jones’ message was simple: Yes, growth here is steady, but modest — and older adults will make up an increasingly large share of the population.

Chelan County added about 600 residents last year, a growth rate of less than one percent, with nearly all of it driven by people moving here rather than local births. “By 2030, I’ll go out on a limb and say a quarter of your population will be 65-plus,” Jones told commissioners. That’s already trending higher than the statewide average.

The implications, he argued, touch everything from labor force participation — down from 71 percent before the pandemic to about 66 percent today — to health care demand and tax revenue.

“A lot of those people could work, but maybe they don’t want to work, so they’re not out there,” Jones said. “And that’s why I thought, if you’re looking at a future where 25 percent of your population is in that age category, what does that mean for the workforce? How does it help you attract new jobs or grow new jobs if a lot of people just can’t, don’t want to work?”

Data worth chewing on
Jones backed his outlook with sharp contrasts: Wenatchee now has the highest median resale home prices in eastern Washington, topping $570,000, and its affordability index has fallen to 57, well below the threshold of 100 that signals balance between incomes and housing costs. At the same time, local wages have risen faster since 2020 than in the decade before, but inflation has eaten into those gains.

The trends, he said, are consistent across the broader region: “We are not that different from the state overall in terms of economic cycles.”

Denser than its reputation
While population growth has been modest, Jones pointed out that central Washington’s hub is quietly becoming one of the most densely populated areas in the state. Apartment and condo construction inside city limits has added enough people per square mile to make Wenatchee denser than anywhere else in Eastern Washington — and, by his measure, the fourth most densely populated city in Washington.

“Most people assume Douglas County has been growing faster, and it has not,” Jones explained. “The densities in Chelan County are going up much faster than they are in Douglas County.” That density has helped offset the limits of available land, and it underscores how much of the valley’s growth is happening vertically rather than outward.

Jobs lag behind pre-pandemic levels
One of the most surprising data points, Jones said, is that total employment in the valley still hasn’t caught up to where it was before COVID. Chelan County counted nearly 40,000 people employed in 2024 — about 2,000 fewer than before the pandemic hit.

“You are in an unusual position among all of our Eastern Washington projects,” he told the Tri-Commission, noting that communities like Spokane and the Tri-Cities have rebounded to higher employment than before 2020. Walla Walla and Yakima are in the same boat, he added, but the dip here is still significant.

Jones tied the gap partly to demographics. With fewer working-age adults participating in the labor force, the pool of available workers is simply smaller than in the past.

Another side of the story
Jones’ projections are hard to argue with — his institute’s work is grounded in impeccable state and federal data. But there may be reasons to think the “quarter-senior” prediction could be softened by the decade ahead. The cultural and economic landscape of North Central Washington is shifting.

A new Craft District in Wenatchee is already drawing investment, the city museum has a major upgrade on the horizon, and the Confluence Parkway project will improve not just access through the arteries of the city, but carry its lifeblood beyond city limits faster and more efficiently.

Across the valley, projects like Side Street in Cashmere — now a magnet for younger residents and visitors, with a music venue in the works — show how smaller towns are drawing new energy. From arts and tourism in Chelan to agritourism in Manson, investments large and small could tilt the balance toward younger families choosing the region. Raw historical data can’t deliver a prediction that includes the future.

Those kinds of attractions, paired with jobs in food, beverage, tourism, and the arts, could draw more young people and families than the forecasts assume. That wouldn’t erase the demographic reality Jones described, but it could bring a balance that reshapes how “older” and “younger” share the valley.

For now, his message landed clearly: the region is getting older, denser, and more expensive — and it’s up to local leaders to decide how to plan for it.

Andrew Simpson: 509-433-7626 or andrew@ward.media